The economic effect of vaccination will take many months
The economic effect of vaccination will take many months

The economic effect of vaccination will take many months

The positive economic effect of the vaccination that has begun has not yet been seen. On the contrary, even countries that have announced widespread vaccination are tightening quarantine restrictions and shutting down many businesses. 

This is exactly what the authorities of Germany, Israel or Great Britain do, in particular. 

In Russia, the rate of vaccination is still inferior to the quality of infection. Simultaneously, developers of foreign vaccines do not guarantee that vaccinated people will cease to be carriers of coronavirus. 

So there is a possibility that the rate of spread of the epidemic will not decrease and we may not see a significant positive effect on the global economy in the coming year. 

In the United States, about 1 million people have already been vaccinated; in China, they plan to vaccinate nearly 50 million people with their vaccine by mid-February next years. 

Experts believe that vaccination in the required volumes in developed countries will end by autumn. And this will allow some sectors of the economy to recover to pre-crisis levels.

In Russia, the start of the vaccination campaign was announced in mid-December, but we are still talking about very small volumes. 

About 20 thousand subjects were vaccinated with two components of the domestic vaccine, the Ministry of Health reported about 30 thousand people in the register of vaccinated people. Still, almost the same number are getting sick every day.

In the Russian Federation regions, several thousand medical workers, teachers, and social workers are reporting on vaccination at the first stage. 

On the government’s official website, information is still published daily on the number of people infected (over 27 thousand on Monday), recovered, and deaths from coronavirus. Nevertheless, in the same operational mode, there is no information about the population’s immunization yet.

On December 21, Health Minister Mikhail Murashko said that 330 thousand doses had already been shipped to the regions, and at least 500 thousand doses would be delivered by the end of the year. The head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov is more optimistic. He said that more than 2.5 million doses of the Sputnik V vaccine would be produced in December. He expects 18 million by April 2021 and 30 million by June.

Recall that for full vaccination, it is planned to introduce two doses at intervals of two months, and it turns out that in the first half of the year 15 million people will receive immunity from vaccination. And according to experts, it is necessary to vaccinate 60–75% of the country’s adult population for full protection.

According to Rosstat, at the beginning of 2020, 114.1 million people over the age of 20 live in the country, which means that about 70 million need to be vaccinated (taking into account people over 60, whose vaccination the Ministry of Health approved the other day). If the pace of vaccine production does not significantly accelerate, then this task will not be completed until the end of 2021.

At the initial stage of vaccination, it seems to be not even perceived as a factor of serious protection. An illustrative example is Turkey, where incoming foreign tourists are not asked whether they are vaccinated or not but are required to take a test. 

In Europe, spot vaccination, which began, as in France, from nursing homes, cannot yet be considered a factor at the beginning of the economic revival. In Austria, the third lockdown has been announced since Saturday and will last until January 24. 

In the UK, vaccination (with the drug from BioNTech – Pfizer) began even earlier than in the Russian Federation, on December 8. Still, the most severe new lockdown started due to a new strain discovered.

About Zahid Shaukat

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